Things don't get less scary if one looks at the total number of cases reported, 5986 on 20th of March, and no less than 3000 new cases since 13th March. Now, look at the WHO graph and see where Italy was 1month ago.
On the 22nd of February, there were eleven (11) cases of coronavirus in Italy; four (4) the day before. See the curve shooting up after that? The 4th of March, with 2500 confirmed cases, the Italian government closed schools and universities. One week later, the country surpassed the TEN THOUSAND cases (that was 11th March). The number of deaths is near 5000.
It is very difficult to understand why there is such a high mortality rate in Italy and there is no much information available to even try to speculate.
The first detailed report of cases coming out of China showed that the susceptibility to the disease increased greatly with age, with the groups over 60years old having much higher probability of death than younger people.
Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020
A quick look at the age demographics in Italy shows that in the last decade the percentage of people over 65years old has been slowly but steadily increasing and now it's probably above 23%. This would mean that more than three million and a half people are at high risk of developing complications due to COVID-19, in the Lombardy region alone.
Italy: Age distribution from 2008 to 2018
See the evolution of cases with time here
But still, why would there be such high rate of infection? We can try to follow the timeline of events.
On 8th March, Sunday morning, the region of Lombardy and 11 neighboring provinces, 16million people, were put under lockdown. From 11th to 13th March Italy added more than 2000 cases per day. On 13th March, with 17700 total cases, Italy declared national lockdown. Between 14th and 17th March, more than 3000 cases per day were confirmed. On 18th they had 4200 new cases and in 19th and 20th they declared more than 5000. By the quick increase in cases one can suspect that the restrictions were brought in too late to control the spread of the disease, and by the time personal distance became a barrier for transmission, a huge number of people had been infected already.
And yet, on March 18th the number of reports for breaking the curfew was over 45000. I guess people are not scared yet, even when they are counting
We have seen that Italy had an aged population pre-disposed to developing complications and a health system that is over-stressed by the concentration of cases and the reduction in health care personnel available, that restrictive measures were put in place when many people had already been infected and that, even when they were put in place late, they were not being respoected as they should.
The Washington post publishes a graphic modeling of the spread of a simulated disease (simulitis) in a small population under different conditions. Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”. Countries like China and Korea have shown that flattening the curve is possible, but it takes a lot of will. Early lockdown, high rates of testing and quick isolation and quarantine of positives and persons with symptoms are crucial. As it is crucial that people abide by those regulations, agree to testing and to isolation, for their safety and that of everyone else.What will not work, is to continue to go about our business as if nothing happened.
The scary numbers in Italy on 21st March.
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