Honestly, the statistics at play here are way above my level, but look at Figure 1 and ask yourself, if COVID-19 hits your country, who would you rather be like? China, Italy? or Korea?
The authors conclude the following:
"To conclude, we believe that our model can constitute a useful statistical tool for decision makers: in each country, once a minimal series of data is collected (we suggest 15 days) the values of !, and can be monitored along time, to reveal at what stage the contagion cycle is: in an upward trend (as Italy); in a downward trend (as China); in a no trend cycle (as South Korea); or in a situation which needs more data to be understood (as Iran). The full reproducibility of our model can easily extend its application to more countries and time periods as data becomes available."
Agosto, Arianna and Giudici, Paolo, A Poisson Autoregressive Model
to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics (March 9, 2020). Available at
SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3551626 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551626
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