Differences between ethnic groups in England and Wales - half and half

The Office for National Statistics has released an initial analysis of the risk of dying per ethnic group in the UK shows that geographic and sociodemographic factors could explain half of the variation, whereas the other half is due to factors yet to be identified.

This means that a substantial part of the difference in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups is explained by the different circumstances in which members of those groups are known to live, such as areas with socio-economic deprivation. Geographic and socio-economic factors were accounting for over half of the difference in risk between males and females of Black and White ethnicity. However, these factors do not explain all of the difference, suggesting that other causes are still to be identified.

Figure_Risk of COVID-19-related death by ethnic group and sex, England and Wales, 2 March to 10 April 2020 (ONS) 

Age-adjusted model

 

Fully adjusted model

Despite the limitation of the study (like the use of 2011 Census data), it is the first analysis of its kind that I have found and it brings important information to the forefront. I find it very encouraging that they already identify further analysis that needs to be done to identify those unknown factors.

Individuals from the different ethnic groups may differ in terms of socio-economic characteristics or health outcomes not included in our model, which could drive the residual differences in the risk of dying from COVID-19. For instance, some ethnic groups may be over-represented in public-facing occupations and may therefore be more likely to be infected by COVID-19. For example, individuals in the Bangladeshi and Pakistani ethnic group are more likely to work as transport operatives than those in any other ethnic group. We plan to conduct further work to identify occupations that are particularly at risk and adjust for working in those.
Our adjustment for demographic and socio-economic profile has limitations, since the characteristics we use were retrieved from the 2011 Census. Therefore, these may not accurately reflect the study population's current circumstances in 2020. While we adjust for some dimensions of health (self-reported health and having a limiting health problem or disability), the information was collected in 2011 and does not distinguish between different types of comorbidities that are a likely modifier of these differential risks observed.
Similarly, some ethnic groups may have a greater propensity to suffer from comorbidities that are associated with worse outcomes among those infected by COVID-19, which we will take account of in future analyses.